DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL TIMING FOR IMPLEMENTING PROPHYLACTIC MEASURES TO PREVENT SPREAD OF COVID-19 WITHIN AN ORGANIZATION (USING THE SARATOV REGION AS AN EXAMPLE)

Large organizations of various types (industrial, scientific, commercial, etc.) are characterized by high personnel density, which creates conditions for intense interpersonal contact. In such an environment, respiratory infections, including COVID-19, spread unchecked, affecting employees of all ages. Inadequate ventilation in premises and neglect of personal hygiene as well as social distancing rules comprise the main factors contributing to the accumulation of viral particles and the increase in morbidity. Altogether, it turns office and production sites into areas of increased epidemiological risk so that implementing a set of preventive measures can significantly minimize a risk of infection within the workforce. An effective anti-epidemic strategy in a specific region of the country should rely on analyzing regional morbidity trends, which often differ over time from those in central regions. This article presents a scientifically-justified algorithm for determining the optimal timing for activating preventive measures in organizations. The methodology is based on analytical approaches such as cross-correlation analysis and calculation of the effective reproductive number (Rt). A comparative study of the epidemic process in Moscow and the Saratov region revealed specific patterns necessary for timely management decisions. It was found that the incidence rate in the Saratov region lags behind that in Moscow (by 16-17 days). According to the proposed algorithm, achieving an Rt ≥ 1.5 in the capital region serves as a leading indicator (signal) for immediate initiation of preventive measures in the Saratov region. This predictive approach significantly reduces the likelihood of infection among the most vulnerable groups of workers, particularly those aged 65 and above. The proposed model is universal: it can be successfully integrated into the healthcare system to combat other airborne infectious diseases in case they spread widely across the Russian Federation.